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Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990–2004

Identifieur interne : 000360 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000359; suivant : 000361

Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990–2004

Auteurs : Arlene M. Fiore ; Larry W. Horowitz ; Edward J. Dlugokencky ; J. Jason West

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:F0C39061C45400C3363BF339232607BE9086D58A

Abstract

Over the past century, atmospheric methane (CH4) rose dramatically before leveling off in the late 1990s. The processes controlling this trend are poorly understood, limiting confidence in projections of future CH4. The MOZART‐2 global tropospheric chemistry model qualitatively captures the observed CH4 trend (increasing in the early 1990s and then leveling off) with constant emissions. From 1991–1995 to 2000–2004, the CH4 lifetime versus tropospheric OH decreases by 1.6%, reflecting increases in OH and temperature. The rise in OH stems from an increase in lightning NOx as parameterized in the model. A simulation including annually varying anthropogenic and wetland CH4 emissions, as well as the changes in meteorology, best reproduces the observed CH4 distribution, trend, and seasonal cycles. Projections of future CH4 abundances should consider climate‐driven changes in CH4 sources and sinks.


Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026199

Links to Exploration step

ISTEX:F0C39061C45400C3363BF339232607BE9086D58A

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<title type="main">Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990–2004</title>
<title type="short">METHANE TREND ATTRIBUTION, 1990–2004</title>
<title type="shortAuthors">Fiore
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<abstract>Over the past century, atmospheric methane (CH4) rose dramatically before leveling off in the late 1990s. The processes controlling this trend are poorly understood, limiting confidence in projections of future CH4. The MOZART‐2 global tropospheric chemistry model qualitatively captures the observed CH4 trend (increasing in the early 1990s and then leveling off) with constant emissions. From 1991–1995 to 2000–2004, the CH4 lifetime versus tropospheric OH decreases by 1.6%, reflecting increases in OH and temperature. The rise in OH stems from an increase in lightning NOx as parameterized in the model. A simulation including annually varying anthropogenic and wetland CH4 emissions, as well as the changes in meteorology, best reproduces the observed CH4 distribution, trend, and seasonal cycles. Projections of future CH4 abundances should consider climate‐driven changes in CH4 sources and sinks.</abstract>
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<note type="content"> Auxiliary material for this article contains two figures, two tables, and four text files. Auxiliary material files may require downloading to a local drive depending on platform, browser, configuration, and size. To open auxiliary materials in a browser, click on the label. To download, Right‐click and select “Save Target As…” (PC) or CTRL‐click and select “Download Link to Disk” (Mac). See Plugins for a list of applications and supported file formats. Additional file information is provided in the readme.txt. Auxiliary material for this article contains two figures, two tables, and four text files. Auxiliary material files may require downloading to a local drive depending on platform, browser, configuration, and size. To open auxiliary materials in a browser, click on the label. To download, Right‐click and select “Save Target As…” (PC) or CTRL‐click and select “Download Link to Disk” (Mac). See Plugins for a list of applications and supported file formats. Additional file information is provided in the readme.txt. Auxiliary material for this article contains two figures, two tables, and four text files. Auxiliary material files may require downloading to a local drive depending on platform, browser, configuration, and size. To open auxiliary materials in a browser, click on the label. To download, Right‐click and select “Save Target As…” (PC) or CTRL‐click and select “Download Link to Disk” (Mac). See Plugins for a list of applications and supported file formats. Additional file information is provided in the readme.txt. Auxiliary material for this article contains two figures, two tables, and four text files. Auxiliary material files may require downloading to a local drive depending on platform, browser, configuration, and size. To open auxiliary materials in a browser, click on the label. To download, Right‐click and select “Save Target As…” (PC) or CTRL‐click and select “Download Link to Disk” (Mac). See Plugins for a list of applications and supported file formats. Additional file information is provided in the readme.txt.Supporting Info Item: readme.txt - Table S1. Global methane sources by sector (Tg yr−1). - Table S1. Global methane sources by sector (Tg yr−1). - Table S2. Summary statistics of modeled vs. observed methane abundances. - Table S2. Summary statistics of modeled vs. observed methane abundances. - Figure S1. Monthly mean methane abundances. - Figure S2. Annual mean methane lifetime against loss. - Text S1. The potential impacts on OH. - Text S2. The lightning NOx sensitivity simulation. - Text S3. The potential for the decrease in the methane lifetime. - Text S4. The methodology for comparing model vs. observed values. - </note>
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<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0315">Biosphere/atmosphere interactions</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0330">Geochemical cycles</topic>
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<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1000">GEOCHEMISTRY</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1030">Geochemical cycles</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1610">Atmosphere</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1615">Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4800">OCEANOGRAPHY: BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4805">Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4900">PALEOCEANOGRAPHY</topic>
<topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4912">Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling</topic>
</subject>
<subject>
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<topic>Atmospheric Science</topic>
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<identifier type="ISSN">0094-8276</identifier>
<identifier type="eISSN">1944-8007</identifier>
<identifier type="DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</identifier>
<identifier type="CODEN">GPRLAJ</identifier>
<identifier type="PublisherID">GRL</identifier>
<part>
<date>2006</date>
<detail type="volume">
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<number>33</number>
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<detail type="issue">
<caption>no.</caption>
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<identifier type="DOI">10.1029/2006GL026199</identifier>
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<accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.</accessCondition>
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